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  • Economy growing fast at 5.1% even though factories are struggling

Economy growing fast at 5.1% even though factories are struggling

Cheaper loans might be coming in 2024

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had a pretty good day!

Closing prices on thinkorswim

  • SPY (which tracks the S&P 500 - basically the 500 biggest U.S. companies) is up 1.20%

  • QQQ (which follows big tech companies on the Nasdaq) is up 0.87%

  • The futures markets (ESH25 and NQH25) are also up, suggesting traders are feeling optimistic

Whether you have a 401k, some index funds, or just general market exposure, your investments are likely in the green today.

What happened this week (Dec 16-20):

Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index - basically a survey that shows if factories are making more or less stuff) is at 48.3. Think of it like a health check for factories - above 50 means they're growing, below means they're shrinking

Services PMI at 58.9 (same idea but for businesses like restaurants, banks, and hotels) shows the service sector is booming

Retail sales up 0.7% - tells us how much people are spending at stores and online

The Fed (America's central bank) kept interest rates at 4.50% but hinted at cutting rates in 2024, which could make borrowing cheaper for everything from mortgages to credit cards

Job market: 322K people filed for unemployment - still historically low

GDP (Gross Domestic Product - the total value of all goods and services produced) grew 5.1% in Q3, showing strong economic growth

Housing market: 4.15M existing homes sold - important because housing affects everything from furniture sales to construction jobs

PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures - the Fed's preferred way to measure inflation) at 2.8% - still higher than the 2% target but heading down

What's happening next week (Dec 23-26):

Consumer confidence report (shows if people feel good about spending money)

Durable goods orders (tracks purchases of big-ticket items like appliances and cars - shows if people are making major investments)

New home sales data (different from existing homes, shows if construction companies are selling newly built houses)

Markets closed for Christmas 🎅 🎄

Weekly jobless claims and oil inventory data (oil supplies affect gas prices and inflation)

Potential trading ideas:

Day traders
Watch financial stocks during Fed announcement fallout and monitor retail stocks as holiday shopping data comes in.

Swing traders
Real estate stocks might be worth watching as housing data improves; consider consumer discretionary sectors ahead of confidence report.

Long-term investments
Service sector ETFs look promising given strong PMI numbers, so consider adding to positions in rate-sensitive sectors (utilities, real estate) as Fed signals potential rate cuts.

Disclaimer:
This breakdown is purely for educational and entertainment purposes. Markets are complex and unpredictable - never invest money you can't afford to lose. This isn't financial advice; always do your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​