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Mixed economic signals on Christmas Eve

Consumer spending stays steady

Author

Ary Mega
December 24th, 2024 • Read this in 3 minutes

In good news, market's having a nice Christmas Eve rally!

Main Market Indexes (all in the green today🎄)

  • S&P 500 (SPY): Up 1.11% to $601

  • Nasdaq (QQQ): Up 1.36% to $530

  • Both Future Markets (ESH25/NQH25) are up too

What this means for you:

  • If you have a 401k, IRA, or any index funds - your investments are having a good day

  • Tech stocks (tracked by QQQ) are performing especially well

  • High trading volume shows this isn't just a quiet holiday move - there's real buying happening

Bottom line:
Nice little Christmas gift for anyone with market investments. All major indexes are up over 1%, which is a solid day, especially for a shortened trading session. Your retirement accounts are probably smiling right now! 📈🎅

🏦 Consumer Behavior (Durable Goods)

  • Overall big purchases down 0.3%, but core spending up 0.3%

  • People are still buying furniture, appliances, etc. – just being pickier and more strategic

  • Shows consumer confidence despite inflation

🏠 Housing Market Reality

  • New home sales surprised: 666K vs expected 610K

  • Previous month down 17.3%

  • Housing market's slightly better than expected, but still choppy from high rates

  • Might see more inventory and negotiating power if you're house hunting

💰 Economic Health Check

  • Atlanta Fed1 sees 3.1% growth (healthy economy = more job security)

  • Government borrowing cost up to 4.478% (affects everything from mortgages to credit cards)

Bottom line is the economy's resilient, but not booming, so it’s a good time to:

  • Be strategic with big purchases

  • Keep saving

  • Watch for housing opportunities if you're in the market

  • Expect credit costs to stay high

1 The Atlanta Fed (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) is basically running a real-time forecast of how the U.S. economy is doing, called GDPNow. Think of it like a weather forecast, but for the economy.

Right now, they're saying the economy's growing at 3.1%, which is pretty healthy. To put that in perspective:

  • 0% = economy's flat

  • 1-2% = meh

  • 2-3% = pretty good

  • Over 3% = really good

Why you should care:

  • Strong growth (like now) usually means “job security”

  • Better chance of raises or finding higher-paying jobs

  • More likely your investments (401k, etc.) will do well

  • Businesses tend to expand, meaning more opportunities

The catch?
When growth is this good, the Fed might keep interest rates high to prevent inflation from getting out of hand. Translation: Your credit card, car loan, and mortgage rates probably aren't coming down anytime soon.

Bottom line:
The 3.1% growth is good news for your job and investments, but not so great if you're planning to borrow money soon.

The legal, boring disclaimer:
This breakdown is purely for educational and entertainment purposes. Markets are complex and unpredictable - never invest money you can't afford to lose. This isn't financial advice; always do your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​